Sunday, December 9, 2018

Negotiating a Purchase, Bipolar Style

Bipolar.  Mania.  Symptom:  Going on buying sprees or making foolish investments.

OK, so those are the perimeters of the conversation.  The situation is that we are getting to the point where it is going to be necessary to purchase a car for my wife.  Currently she drives a 2006 Toyota Sienna AWD.  It has been a wonderful car for us.  Dependable.  Gets around in the snow of North Idaho well.  And nice.  It's Oma's "magic car" with doors that open with a push of a button, etc.

Alas, as it approaches 200,000 miles it is developing some issues.  The rear suspension is worn and cannot be realigned meaning that tires will wear significantly and unevenly.  They also couldn't get a good alignment on the front, so it pulls to one side.  Recently one of the back sliding doors broke.  Bottom line, it's time.

The good news is that in short order my father's estate will settle (hopefully) which will allow us to clear up some debts and position ourselves to be able to afford a car payment.

The challenge is that I've always been the car buyer in our family.  For a variety of reasons Karla has deferred to me in that area.  I do all the preliminary work and shopping.  Once I've settled on a vehicle I ask for her consent, which she has normally given.  The difficult position that I've put her in on numerous occasions is that my momentum for purchasing a vehicle is pretty strong by the time I ask her permission and to say no would be a little like trying to stop a freight train that is rumbling down the tracks at 70 miles an hour.  Add to that the fact that manic tendencies do not always make for good purchases and we've got a new challenge.

So we are trying to learn a new game.  Karla has agreed to take a more active role early on in the shopping and selecting of a vehicle.  Together we've decided to look at three options:  Another Sienna; a Highlander; or a Rav4.  All of them are available in All Wheel Drive, and two of which are available in a hybrid, which we'd prefer.  A big question is whether we buy new or used.

It's not always straightforward.  Used is not always the cheaper route.  When we bought our Dodge Caravan a while back, the only late model used vehicles were lease returns which tended to be the highest priced trim packages, meaning that a used vehicle was running about $24,000 while a new vehicle could be purchased with what we needed for $18,500.  Also, financing is frequently more advantageous on a new vehicle with the net result that sometimes the payment for a new vehicle is less per month than the payment for a used  vehicle.  I also have developed a simple formula to determine the relative value.

My formula is to calculate the cost per mile of the vehicle based on a life span of 200,000 miles.  So for example, we could probably get a new Sienna for around $40,000 depending on the trim package.  That works out to 20 cents a mile over the life of the vehicle.  One used vehicle with 70,000 miles I've looked at was originally priced at $27,000.  At that price it would cost 21 cents per mile for the remaining 130,000 miles of its lifespan.  It's now been reduced to 23,000 which makes the cost per mile around 18 cents.  That assumes that the interest rate is the same on the used as it is on the new, though often promotional rates for new cars are well below standard rates for used, sometimes even 0%.  For example, a 2018 Rav4 Hybrid can be purchased new for around 30,000 with 0% interest resulting in a per mile cost of 15 cents, while paying interest on a used vehicle I located with low mileage results in a cost of 17 cents.

So it goes.  What I find  myself needing to do to counteract the impulses associated with being bipolar is to find as many objective standards upon which to base a decision as possible.  And hopefully, standards that are objective enough that others who are not bipolar (AKA my wife) will be able to look at them and say "That makes sense."

This is not a bad thing.  In hindsight I wish I had always been so diligent in making purchases on major items.  It has been in the past, a mixed bag.  My manic side kicked in previously in making two major purchases.  A house and a CNC Router.  Both involved about the same amount of cash upfront, a down payment on the house, and the full price of the CNC.  By purchasing the house at a low point in the market we have since realized an appreciation that has left us sitting quite well, with nearly 4 times the down payment now in equity.  It didn't work out so well with the CNC.  My imagined business plan didn't pan out.  Oh, we can do some neat stuff, it just hasn't been worth the investment and its resale value is not great either.  Bottom line is that I spent more on the CNC that I've earned using it.  Lesson learned.

What I'm finding is that negotiating such treacherous waters requires discipline.  And a willingness to 'pass' on some great deals that may not be all that great.  And most importantly, seeking to involve others in such decisions and letting the facts rule the day, not my power of persuasion. 

We'll see how this all unfolds in the coming months. . .

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