Current trends will not continue indefinitely.

There is only one trend that is continuous, and that is that current trends change.

For example, the average birth rate today in the United States is 1.8 children per woman.  In other words, the birthrate is below 2.1/woman, the rate required at a minimum to sustain the population of a people from generation to generation.  In 1960 the average birth rate was 3.65.  What that means is that the birthrate in our country, if current trends continue, will be zero by 2080.  If current trends continue.  It also means that with a birthrate of zero in 2080 then shortly thereafter, in a generation or two, the United States will cease to exist.  If current rates continue.

They won't.

But even if the birthrate continues at its current rate, the population of the United States will only be able to maintain or grow through immigration-- if current trends continue.  It is also true that the highest birthrates globally are among non-white people, meaning that in time white folks will compromise less and less of the world's population-- if current trends continue.

I recently received a piece from one of my church's seminaries that asked the question whether our denomination would cease to exist.  Based on current trends, 2050 is the year we run out of members.  One fact this does point to is that with the birthrate being what it is we are not regenerating membership through births, as we did in years past.  But it also points to a decreasing interest in organized religion across the board.

With regards to current trends, there are shifts in trends that often stabilize, and even reverse themselves over time.  For example, most of the decline in the birthrate in this country occurred between 1960 and 1975.  Two things happened.  The Pill was introduced.  And expectations around women's roles in society shifted.  But the birthrate stabilized after 1975.

In all likelihood, the decline in Church membership will level out at some point, and may even radically change.  A friend speaks of the hope that a Great Awakening will once again transform our land.  Whether this country ever returns to a feverish religiosity remains to be seen, but likely religious participation will stabilize at some point.  And, if in the course of a couple decades we again face the equivalent of two world wars and a great depression there maybe a significant return to faith communities in order to seek comfort and hope during times of trial.

Baring such an awakening, we will likely see leaner years ahead for our congregations and denominations.  Faced with leaner times there will be a fundamental question that will divide religious expressions in the future.  Churches will orient themselves either to the future or the past.  There will be a motivation either to shape the future or hold fast to the past.  My hope is to be involved in a church that is dedicated to shaping the future, not one that attempting to  preserve the remnant of the past.

One irreversible change that has occurred globally is the interaction between diverse cultures and people.  The world is becoming smaller.  And our experience of one another is expanding.  Advances in communication and travel have brought the world closer together resulting in an experience of diversity never before imagined.  When I grew up in Irene, SD, our town was comprised almost exclusively of Norwegian Americans.  The next town over was Danish American.  And so it was across the Great Plains.  During the time of homesteading ethnic groups settled together.  Interaction with other groups and communities was very limited.  The result was a sense of homogeneity.  Irene was Lutheran and exclusively White.

The question for the future will be whether we seek to cling to a tribalism that is a remnant of the past, or embrace a diversity of people that reflects the interaction between people of different ethnic, cultural, political and religious backgrounds.  For the Church the implications are straight forward.  We will either seek to maintain the exclusive claims and closed communities of the past or we will learn to thrive in a world that is pluralistic.  Within the Church we will need to become more ecumenical, beyond the Church we will need to address interfaith relationships, and individually we will have to deal with diversity as a 'next door' issue.

I'm actually excited about the prospects for the future.  I believe that the human experience will be richer for the diversity.  But we will have to get over the desire to mandate a conformity in order to enjoy it.  Religious communities will not even be able to maintain a homogeneity within their own membership ranks.  That's not so bad, unless your compelled to fight about it.

If current trends continue the Church as we have known it in years gone by will indeed die.  We simply will not be able to sustain the Church as a tribalistic community that defines itself over and against everybody else.  This will be especially true as our neighborhoods and families are increasingly shaped by the diversity of the world.  But that's alright.

And remember, homogeneity was ALWAYS an illusion.  The world has ALWAYS been diverse.  The future that is beckoning us is just more aware and accepting of this basic fact of our existence on this planet.